Ceasefire with Lebanon: A Win for Biden or the Trump Effect?
Israel and Hezbollah have agreed to a comprehensive ceasefire arrangement brokered by the outgoing Biden administration. The agreement, which took effect early Wednesday morning, comes after more than a year of conflict during which the Biden administration failed to secure any meaningful diplomatic victories or secure the release of a single hostage from Hamas in Gaza.
Less than two days after the ceasefire took effect, Israel accused Hezbollah of violating the agreement, forcing the IDF to strike inside Lebanon twice. In the first strike, fighter jets struck a Hezbollah facility used to hold medium-range rockets after identifying activity there, according to the military.
In the second, the IDF said it carried out a strike against two Hezbollah operatives who entered a site in southern Lebanon used to fire dozens of rockets at Israel. The operatives were targeted in a drone strike “to thwart the threat,” the IDF said.
The IDF also said it fired warning shots in several areas of southern Lebanon throughout the day to disperse Hezbollah operatives attempting to reach no-go zones near the border. In one case, a drone struck near the suspects as a warning measure.
“The arrival of suspects, some with vehicles, to several areas in southern Lebanon was identified, which constitutes a violation [of the ceasefire],” the IDF said in a statement.
Key Components of the Agreement
The ceasefire agreement includes several crucial elements that distinguish it from previous arrangements:
- A 60-day implementation period during which:
- Lebanese army and state security forces will deploy in southern Lebanon
- Israeli troops will gradually withdraw
- Hezbollah must retreat north of the Litani River
- Enhanced enforcement mechanisms:
- U.S. and French participation in monitoring
- A new U.S.-led enforcement committee
- Clear territorial demarcation with agreed-upon maps
President Biden emphasized the permanent nature of this agreement: “This is designed to be a permanent cessation of hostilities. What is left of Hezbollah and other terrorist organizations will not be allowed to threaten the security of Israel again.”
The ceasefire is slated to
The Iranian Clause
Perhaps most significantly, a confidential “Iranian clause” in the U.S.-Israel side agreement provides additional security guarantees. According to Channel 12 News, this provision commits the U.S. to “working with Israel to prevent Iran from destabilizing the region, establishing a foothold in Lebanon, or undermining the principles of the agreement—either directly or through its proxies.”
“The U.S. commits to working with Israel to prevent Iran from destabilizing the region, establishing a foothold in Lebanon, or undermining the principles of the agreement—either directly or through its proxies,” the letter states, according to the report.
The “Iranian clause” also stipulates, “If Israel decides to act, it will notify the United States as soon as possible. The United States expects all Israeli actions to comply with international law and aim to minimize harm to civilians and civilian infrastructure.”
While this sounds encouraging, the Biden administration has shown a high level of duplicity in relations between Israel and Iran. While the US and Israel are allies and, in theory, share intelligence, this is not always the case. It was reported this month that Asif William Rahman, a CIA officer who had been working outside the United States, was arrested in Cambodia on charges he leaked classified Pentagon documents detailing Israel’s preparations for its attack on Iran. Rahman had a security clearance granting him access to top-secret information.
In August, it was reported the Biden administration leaked the names of 10 Mossad agents operating in Iran who allegedly were involved in the July 31 assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh to Tehran as part of a “‘good faith’ initiative in response to Israel’s strikes.
It was also reported that before the two attacks against Israel, Iranian officials communicated their intent to launch a massive attack with the intention that this message be conveyed to the United States. Through these same diplomatic channels, the US conveyed its tacit assent on the condition that any action it took had to be “within certain limits”.
An Israeli Cabinet minister described this as “a significant achievement,” noting that “We’ve effectively brought the United States into Lebanon as a primary overseer.”
Strategic Timing and Political Considerations
The timing of Netanyahu’s decision to accept the ceasefire reflects complex strategic calculations. Multiple Israeli political analysts suggest that Netanyahu’s agreement was partially motivated by concerns that the Biden administration might follow the Obama administration’s precedent of delivering a parting diplomatic blow to Israel. In December 2016, the Obama administration abstained from vetoing UN Security Council Resolution 2334, which condemned Israeli settlements and was widely considered grossly anti-Israel.
Under the ceasefire terms, Israeli forces can remain in Lebanon for 60 days. This is intentional as it marks Trump’s entrance into the Oval Office. It seems clear that Netanyahu believes that the incoming administration will be far more supportive of Israel in its existential war against Iran and its proxies.
A Deal After U.S. Constraints
The ceasefire comes after months of intense fighting that saw significant Israeli military successes against Hezbollah, including the elimination of its secretary general Hassan Nasrallah and numerous other senior leaders. These victories were achieved despite increasing constraints from the Biden administration on Israel’s military operations, particularly in areas like Rafah where both Hamas leaders and Israeli hostages have been located.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu emphasized Israel’s position of strength, stating firmly, “If Hezbollah violates the agreement and tries to rearm, we will attack.” The agreement’s timing reflects Israel’s strategic considerations. As Netanyahu explained to the nation, this deal will enable Israel to “focus more closely on the Iranian nuclear threat, allow the IDF to rejuvenate its forces, and isolate Hamas” in pursuit of a potential hostage deal in Gaza – an achievement that has eluded the Biden administration for over a year.
The Trump Effect
The timing of this agreement holds particular significance given the upcoming U.S. presidential transition and the Biden administration’s track record. Despite over a year of diplomatic efforts, the Biden administration has failed to secure the release of hostages in Gaza or achieve any meaningful ceasefire agreements until now. The administration’s approach has often hampered Israel’s military operations, particularly in critical areas like Rafah where intelligence indicates the presence of both Hamas leadership and Israeli hostages.
The Biden administration has kept President-elect Donald Trump’s team informed of negotiations, ensuring continuity in implementation. Some analysts suggest that Trump’s electoral victory may have influenced the timing.
“Everyone is coming to the table because of President Trump,” Florida Rep. Mike Waltz, Trump’s choice for his national security adviser, said in a post on X on Tuesday, shortly before the Israel Cabinet signed off on the agreement. “His resounding victory sent a clear message to the rest of the world that chaos won’t be tolerated. I’m glad to see concrete steps towards deescalation in the Middle East.”
Sen. Lindsey Graham concurred that the president-elect played a major role, tweeting,” I appreciate the hard work of the Biden Administration, supported by President Trump, to make this ceasefire a reality.
This ceasefire will protect Israel from another October 7th and will give the people of Lebanon a break from the fighting.”
In what some are calling “The Trump Effect,” Qatar told Hamas officials to leave their country four days after Trump won the election. Hamas leadership resided in Qatar since leaving Damascus in 2012, after Syria’s civil war erupted.
Challenges in U.S.-Israel Relations
The agreement comes amid growing tensions between Israel and the Biden administration over military support. Netanyahu has pointed to “major delays in the supply of weapons and ammunition,” including the controversial delay of D9 bulldozer deliveries needed for creating security buffer zones. These constraints have complicated Israel’s efforts to establish essential security measures along its borders.
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