Biden admin. advances Saudi talks, may mean replacing Netanyahu gov’t
As part of its quest to bring about a peace deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia, the Biden administration has discussed sweeping concessions by Israel that will benefit the Palestinians. It is unlikely that the current coalition government would agree to such a deal, and some sources are suggesting that the White House will turn to the leaders of the opposition parties in the hopes of forming a unity government devoid of right-wing parties that will appeal to the anti-Israel elements of the Democratic Party.
The New York Times reported on Saturday that National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan was sent to meet with Saudi leaders in Jeddah “to discuss bilateral and regional matters.” The White House statement made no mention of an agreement involving normalizing relations with Israel.
The article noted that in the past, Saudi Arabia demanded significant concessions for normalizing relations with Israel, including a NATO-level alliance with the US which would commit the US to military action if Saudi Arabia were attacked. This is considered unpopular among US politicians. The Saudis also demanded a civilian nuclear program.
In exchange, the US is looking for the Saudis to offer an unprecedentedly large aid package to Palestinian institutions in the West Bank, to significantly roll back its growing relationship with China, and to help bring an end to the civil war in Yemen.
While Israel had been led to believe that the agreement would not require concessions on the part of Israel, the recent NYT reported that “it is now believed that a deal would require significant progress on the [Palestinian] issue.”
This “progress” would include an official Israeli promise to never annex the West Bank commitment, not to establish any more settlements or expand the boundaries of existing ones, a commitment not to legalize any illegal outposts, and the relinquishing of some Palestinian-populated territory in Area C of the West Bank, which is controlled by Israel under the Oslo Accords.
“The Saudis, according to the Israeli impression, would not be satisfied with a promise by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu not to annex the West Bank,” the NYT wrote.
Since such concessions to the Palestinians were considered to be unlikely to be accepted by the right-wing coalition led by Netanyahu and such a proposal might lead to the dissolution of the government, the negotiators considered the possible implications of a regime change in the Israeli government.
“Opposition leaders have vehemently refused to join any government led by Mr. Netanyahu, but questions have come up in discussions with Americans about whether the leaders might relent if it meant establishing relations with the Saudis,” The article stated, noting that “Israel was not part of the negotiations but was relying on an American promise of full transparency.”
The article did not say whether this unity government would be the result of democratic elections or whether the dissolution of the Netanyahyu-led coalition would be part of a democratic process.
Reports in March on the US-Saudi negotiations emphasized that Saudi officials did not raise demands related to the Palestinian issue in their talks with the US other than delaying any annexation until after 2024.
Ironically, the source cited by the NYT admitted that the Saudi leadership “is not particularly interested in the Palestinians or knowledgeable about the intricacies of the peace process,” but the Israeli concessions and requisite change of Israeli government would be to appease the anti-Israel elements in the Democratic party.
“It will be hard enough for President Biden to sell any deal like this to the US Congress, but I can assure you that there will be a strong core of Democratic opposition to any proposal that does not include meaningful, clearly defined, and enforceable provisions to preserve the option of a two-state solution and to meet President Biden’s own demand that Palestinians and Israelis enjoy equal measures of freedom and dignity. These elements are essential to any sustainable peace in the Middle East,” US Senator Chris Van Hollen told the NYT.
Saudi Arabia has provided $6 billion in aid to the Palestinian people since 2000. An amount of $200 million was also pledged by the Kingdom, including $50 million to the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA), and $150 million to support the Palestinian Waqf Program in Jerusalem.
Relations between the Biden administration and Saudi Arabia have been strained since the presidential campaign when he pledged during the 2020 campaign to make the kingdom a “pariah” over its human rights record and the 2018 murder in Turkey of dissident journalist Jamal Khashoggi. This was exacerbated when, in October 2022, several oil-producing countries, including Saudi Arabia responded to a request by the US President to increase oil production by decreasing production.
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